Who’s more likely to win Myanmar’s raging civil war?

BANGKOK – As consequential as was 1948, the year of Myanmar’s independence from colonial tutelage, 2021 and its popular revolt against military rule has marked a second critical watershed in the nation’s modern history

But at the end of a tumultuous year, the future of a struggle that has plunged the country into bloodshed pitting popular democratic forces against an unblinking military regime hangs in a precarious balance.

In recent months, journalistic shorthand has typically described the current conflict as a “stalemate.” The reality is more fluid nut given the wide geography of the Myanmar heartland and a stark lack of independent reporting, it is still impossible to define the trajectory of the war’s material and psychological forces with confidence.

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